![]() Both could be reversed at relatively short notice. So, what could these changes mean for the China imported beef market?įirstly, in the case of Argentina and Australia, it is unclear how long and in what form restricted access may persist. While initial trade was slow, US beef shipments to China have surged in recent months. This allows it to grant new establishments access at a time when COVID-19 has seen other countries’ approvals grind to a halt. Furthermore, the US was given the ability to apply a systems-based approach to China establishment approvals (unlike the rest of the world, which seeks approval on a case-by-case basis). Not only did the agreement wind back trade war tariffs, but the US was also permitted to export HGP-treated beef (albeit within maximum residue limits and with beta-agonists still banned) and beef from cattle over 30-months of age to China. United States: the Phase-One Agreement struck between the US and China at the start of 2020 provided unrivalled technical access for US beef exports to China. Moreover, the return to interventionist government policies will continue to cloud the long-term outlook for Argentine beef exports. Such measures could substantially restrict the volume of Argentine beef exports to China, its largest market. Subsequently, the Argentine government announced measures to limit beef exports to 50% of 2020 volumes and ban the export of some cuts through to the end of August. The reduced trade has been heavily influenced by the suspension of establishments.Īrgentina: in an attempt to check rising domestic beef prices, in mid-May Argentina’s Peronist government announced a 30-day ban on beef exports to all markets other than those managed by tariff rate quotas (TRQ), such as the US and the EU. While cattle and beef supplies have been tight due to Australia’s current herd rebuild, beef exports to China declined 42% year-on-year over the year-to-May period (compared to 18% for all other markets). ![]() The beef products and market segments filled by all three suppliers are not entirely interchangeable, and availability from other exporters may soon become constrained.Īustralia: a range of technical issues resulted in the suspension of seven beef establishments in 2020 that are yet to be relisted. Meanwhile the United States, a relative newcomer, has seen the Phase-One Agreement translate into a fast-growing beef trade. ![]() However, two mainstays of the market, Australia and Argentina, have recently experienced reduced access. Over the year-to-May period, China beef imports increased 18% year-on-year, with all top 10 suppliers (except Australia) recording double-digit growth. Over the past decade, China has continued to open its beef market to an ever-growing list of suppliers – most of the beef heavyweights have enjoyed expanding trade into the market. ![]() Nevertheless, cooling pork prices have yet to drag beef prices down and beef imports have continued to expand. While China pork prices have declined considerably since the Lunar New Year, suggesting pork supplies have rebound, the sheer magnitude of sow herd liquidation and sporadic recurrences of ASF suggest this may be short-lived. A strong economic rebound after initial COVID-19 disruption and a substantial meat shortage due to African Swine Fever (ASF) have bolstered China’s beef imports over the last year, with this momentum continuing in recent months.
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